Military & Secret Tech

On November 28, the cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi approved 847.2 billion yen ($5.4 billion) defense spending in the fiscal 2025 supplementary budget amid growing military threats from China, North Korea and Russia.

A key portion of the budget allocates 122.2 billion yen (~$782 million) to “enhancing capabilities by securing the early operational readiness of aircraft and vessels.”

The breakdown of construction costs includes about 11.5 billion yen (~$73.6 million) for two Mogami-class frigates for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, about 2.9 billion yen for two upgraded Mogami-class vessels, called the New FFMs (also known as 06FFM), and about 39.3 billion yen for four Taigei-class submarines.

A spokesperson at the Japanese Defense Ministry’s press office told Naval News on November 28 that these expenditures are “part of efforts to accelerate procurement, representing an advance allocation of future-year payments drawn from construction costs already approved in the existing budget.”

The spokesperson also said that this approach “ensures that companies can secure the necessary funds reliably and at an early stage, enabling them to begin manufacturing work sooner and, as a result, bringing forward the delivery schedule.”

“The supplementary budget draft includes only the construction costs and does not cover related expenses such as those for the Vertical Launching System (VLS),” the spokesperson added.

The additional funding is intended to secure the JMSDF’s operational readiness as soon as possible, as Japan moves to strengthen deterrence amid a rapidly deteriorating regional security environment as a maritime nation.

The JMSDF plans to build a total of 12 Mogami-class frigates. From fiscal year 2024 to 2028, Japan will earmark funds to acquire the upgraded Mogami-class vessels. The first of the upgraded class of frigates is scheduled to be commissioned in fiscal year 2028, and if construction proceeds smoothly, all 12 New FFMs will be in service within by fiscal year 2032.

A JMSDF spokesperson has told Naval News that Tokyo has not officially decided on how many submarines of the Taigei-class will be built. But it is likely that the total will be about 12. In Japan’s previous submarine production runs, 11 Oyashio-class ships and 12 Soryu-class ships were built.

The Royal Australian Air Force will be the first foreign operator of the advanced AIM-260A JATM air-to-air missile, according to U.S. sources speaking to Naval News on condition of anonymity. The deal also opens the door for other AIM-120D-3 operators to procure AIM-260As, with current priority on Indo-Pacific allies.

Australia’s fleet of F/A-18F Super Hornets and F-35A Lightning IIs will be the first foreign aircraft to fly with JATM air-to-air missiles, marking another milestone of advanced technology cooperation with Australia that spans from hypersonic missiles to next-generation attack submarines. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) was notified of the potential export in September according to preliminary documents sent to Congress this week.

Documents outlining the deal, viewed by Naval News, include 450 AIM-260A missiles, 5 AIM-260A test vehicles, and 30 AIM-260A guided test vehicles earmarked for Australia at a cost of $2.6 billion—$3.1 billion when including non-major defense equipment. This would put each Australian JATM at roughly $5.8 million—including test vehicles, though that cost may not directly reflect the price per unit.

Australia will receive its first batch of JATM missiles in the third quarter of 2033 which tracks with current production timelines for JATM. The delivery timeline is also based on the traditional balancing of U.S. inventory requirements with foreign exports of defense materials.

Final approval of the deal is expected within the week. DSCA, State Department, and Congressional approval offices put up no resistance to the export deal.

AIM-260A JATM rendering. Credit: NAVAIR

No photos of the JATM have been released to date and the U.S. Navy declined to release photos or provide additional information when asked. The U.S. Navy confirmed testing was underway earlier this year after a rendering was released by NAVAIR’s PMA-259 air-to-air missile program office, but declined to comment further on test results. Both the program and missile remain secretive and largely classified even as the missile enters initial production.

The export deal with Australia is unusual due to the nature of JATM as an ongoing development program, but a U.S. official speaking to Naval News on condition of anonymity affirmed that additional exports in the same style could go through based on changes to approval processes and general relationship dynamics between the United States and its closest allies. Several nations have inquired regarding JATM exports, though none could be confirmed.

Naval News understands that despite being officially on a case-by-case basis, countries previously approved for the newest AMRAAM variant—the AIM-120D-3—can also be approved to receive AIM-260As, though their timeline of approval and delivery may not match Australia’s pace. Priority is based on U.S. administration policy and threats faced by the recipient nation. Indo-Pacific allies will receive higher priority.

The U.S. Navy and U.S. Air Force continue to test the AIM-260A JATM as part of work under the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation office. The office could not be reached for comment regarding the current status of work with JATM or any related programs. The U.S. Navy also declined to comment further on JATM progress in its F/A-18 Super Hornet fleet, which Australia also operates.

The AIM-260A is not fully operational in the U.S. Navy or U.S. Air Force based on service official comments provided to Air and Space Forces Magazine last month. According to other officials, the missiles have reached nascent capability with the Air Force’s F-22 fleet but exist in very few numbers and are still undergoing testing for operational capability across a wider range of intended aircraft. When fielded, JATM it is expected to significantly outrange the AMRAAM, reaching distances between 200-320 kilometers based on public estimates.

When should Ukraine commit more forces to a perhaps desperate stand to hold ground it will likely lose? And when is it the difficult but correct choice to preserve the force and pull back to the next defensive line? This is the real, agonizing strategic dilemma shaping the war, now highlighted in the fight for Pokrovsk.Distinguished strategist Lawrence Freedman joins Ryan at a cafe in Vilnius, where they were both speaking at a conference, to dissect this critical question. They also sort through how this relates to each side’s theory of victory and the shifting realities of the battlefield.

The American president has a … different approach to strategy than his predecessors. To make sense of the extent American strategy can work and is working at the moment, Ryan was joined by Frank Hoffman, Justin Logan (Cato Institute), and Rebecca Friedman Lissner (Council on Foreign Relations). Join for the brilliant minds. Stay for the spicy takes on American statecraft in Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. 

Gen. (ret.) CQ Brown, Jr. may have been removed from his post as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but he isn’t finished serving. He joined Ryan at War on the Rocks HQ to talk about how America can realize the true promise of its faltering defense industrial enterprise (the focus of a recent article he authored). Brown argues the playbook already exists. What is missing is concerted action. He also opens up about his abrupt dismissal and how he sees his duty to the nation in the years ahead.

As ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut has deep insights into national security. And he is concerned. He joined Ryan to share his thoughts on strikes on drug boats, the Trump administration’s foreign policy in Latin America, the way the administration fails to work with Congress on matters of national security, and strategy in other parts of the world, including Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. 

Army Chief Technology Officer Alex Miller joined Ryan at a live event to talk about what countering improvised explosive devices taught him about defeating drones, what the Army is learning from the southern border about emerging threats, and what he wants to see from industry. He makes the case for deeper collaboration between companies, sharper focus, and the courage to shut down what no longer works. 

Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to discuss the state of the front, how Ukraine and Russia are staying in the fight, the possible provision of Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, contingencies expected and unexpected, the failures of Russian diplomacy, and what the most important developments of the year so far have been. 

Well, is it? From defense innovation, to scaling capabilities, to budgets, the answers aren’t easy. Ryan was joined by General Sir Richard Barrons of the United Kingdom and Peter Michael Nielsen of Denmark to sort through these issues. Barrons had a storied military career and most recently co-led his country’s Strategic Defence Review. Nielsen is Denmark’s deputy national armaments director, a role that has unique weight now as Denmark holds the E.U. presidency.  This episode was recorded live at a reception in London hosted by our friends at Helsing (https://helsing.ai).