Military & Secret Tech

Breakthroughs in defense, DARPA, and classified military technologies.

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The Chip That Crossed the Line? NVIDIA, China, and the Great Power Tech Race

We’re diving into a major development at the intersection of tech, trade, and national security: the U.S. government’s decision to allow NVIDIA’s H20 chips back into the Chinese market. Brad Carson (former defense official and member of Congress) of Americans for Responsible Innovation and Liza Tobin (former CIA and National Security Council staffer) of Garnaut Global join Ryan to explore what this reversal says about America’s approach to protecting its tech edge, whether NVIDIA’s justifications hold water, why normal Americans should care about this, and what it could mean for the future of AI and semiconductor strategy.  This episode also features a short clip from our new, free show, Cogs of War. You can listen to this exciting new show on defense tech and industrial issues on your podcast app of choice.

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aixcc afc podium atlanta wins

AI Cyber Challenge marks pivotal inflection point for cyber defense

A cyber reasoning system (CRS) designed by Team Atlanta is the winner of the DARPA AI Cyber Challenge (AIxCC), a two-year, first-of-its-kind competition in collaboration with the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) and frontier labs. Competitors successfully demonstrated the ability of novel autonomous systems using AI to secure the open-source software that underlies critical infrastructure.Numerous attacks in recent years have illuminated the ability for malicious cyber actors to exploit vulnerable software that runs everything from financial systems and public utilities to the health care ecosystem.“AIxCC exemplifies what DARPA is all about: rigorous, innovative, high-risk and high-reward programs that push the boundaries of technology. By releasing the cyber reasoning systems open source — four of the seven today — we are immediately making these tools available for cyber defenders,” said DARPA Director Stephen Winchell. “Finding vulnerabilities and patching codebases using current methods is slow, expensive, and depends on a limited workforce – especially as adversaries use AI to amplify their exploits. AIxCC-developed technology will give defenders a much-needed edge in identifying and patching vulnerabilities at speed and scale.”To further accelerate adoption, DARPA and ARPA-H are adding $1.4 million in prizes for the competing teams to integrate AIxCC technology into real-world critical infrastructure- relevant software.“The success of today’s AIxCC finalists demonstrates the real-world potential of AI to address vulnerabilities in our health care system,” said ARPA-H Acting Director Jason Roos. “ARPA-H is committed to supporting these teams to transition their technologies and make a meaningful impact in health care security and patient safety.”Team Atlanta comprises experts from Georgia Tech, Samsung Research, the Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST), and the Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH).Trail of Bits, a New York City-based small business, won second place, and Theori, comprising AI researchers and security professionals in the U.S. and South Korea, won third place.The top three teams will receive $4 million, $3 million, and $1.5 million, respectively, for their performance in the Final Competition.All seven competing teams, including teams all_you_need_is_a_fuzzing_brain, Shellphish, 42-beyond-bug and Lacrosse, worked on aggressively tight timelines to design automated systems that significantly advance cybersecurity research.Deep Dive: Final Competition Findings, Highlights In the Final Competition scored round, teams’ systems attempted to identify and generate patches for synthetic vulnerabilities across 54 million lines of code. Since the competition was based on real-world software, team CRSs could discover vulnerabilities not intentionally introduced to the competition. The scoring algorithm prioritized competitors’ performance based on the ability to create patches for vulnerabilities quickly and their analysis of bug reports. The winning team performed best at finding and proving vulnerabilities, generating patches, pairing vulnerabilities and patches, and scoring with the highest rate of accurate and quality submissions.In total, competitors’ systems discovered 54 unique synthetic vulnerabilities in the Final Competition’s 70 challenges. Of those, they patched 43.In the Final Competition, teams also discovered 18 real, non-synthetic vulnerabilities that are being responsibly disclosed to open source project maintainers. Of these, six were in C codebases—including one vulnerability that was discovered and patched in parallel by maintainers—and 12 were in Java codebases. Teams also provided 11 patches for real, non-synthetic vulnerabilities.“Since the launch of AIxCC, community members have moved from AI skeptics to advocates and adopters. Quality patching is a crucial accomplishment that demonstrates the value of combining AI with other cyber defense techniques,” said AIxCC Program Manager Andrew Carney. “What’s more, we see evidence that the process of a cyber reasoning system finding a vulnerability may empower patch development in situations where other code synthesis techniques struggle.”Competitor CRSs proved they can create valuable bug reports and patches for a fraction of the cost of traditional methods, with an average cost per competition task of about $152. Bug bounties can range from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of dollars.AIxCC technology has advanced significantly from the Semifinal Competition held in August 2024. In the Final Competition scored round, teams identified 77% of the competition’s synthetic vulnerabilities, an increase from 37% at semifinals, and patched 61% of the vulnerabilities identified, an increase from 25% at semifinals. In semifinals, teams were most successful in finding and patching vulnerabilities in C codebases. In finals, teams had similar success rates at finding and patching vulnerabilities across C codebases and Java codebases.Other key competition highlights include:Teams submitted patches in an average of 45 minutesEvery team identified a real-world vulnerabilityFour teams generated patches that were one line longThree teams scored on three different challenge tasks in a one-minute spanOne team scored for a patch that was greater than 300 lines longCompetitors’ CRSs analyzed more than 45 million lines of codeTeams spent about $152 per competition task AIxCC is a collaboration between the public sector and leading AI companies. Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI provided technical support and each donated $350,000 in large language model credits – $50,000 to each team – to support CRS development for the Final Competition, in addition to $5,000 in large language model credits that Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI provided and Azure credits that Microsoft provided to each team for the Semifinal Competition. Microsoft and the Linux Foundation’s Open Source Security Foundation provided subject matter expertise to challenge organizers and participants throughout the competition.Next StepsAll seven finalist teams’ CRSs will be made available as open-source software under a license approved by the Open Source Initiative. Four teams made their CRSs available Friday; others will be released in the coming weeks. Other competition data, to include competition framework, competition challenges, competition telemetry, and other tools and data will also be open sourced in the coming weeks to help advance the technology’s use and allow others to experiment and improve on AIxCC-developed technology.DARPA is working with public and private sector partners, including the teams, to transition the technology to widespread use.Anyone who maintains or develops software in critical infrastructure and wants to integrate AIxCC technology into the software development process is encouraged to contact aixcc-at-darpa-dot-mil.To learn more about AIxCC, visit www.aicyberchallenge.com.

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Forging Minds for Future Wars

In a time of rapid change and global danger, how should the warriors of the future be educated? Ryan sat down with Vice Adm. Peter Garvin, president of the National Defense University, to tackle this question — one that cuts to the core of American military power. Garvin offers a frank assessment of how professional military education needs to evolve to prepare leaders for a world defined by great-power rivalry, disruptive technologies (including and especially AI), and dynamic battlefields. 

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Drones, Discord, and the Shifting Front in Ukraine

Fresh from his latest research trip to Ukraine’s battlefields, Michael Kofman joins Ryan for an insightful discussion on the shifting dynamics at the front, the role of drones in Ukraine’s defensive strategy, and the adaptation of Ukrainian military command structures in real time. They explore the political turmoil gripping Ukraine, including contentious reforms targeting anti-corruption agencies, and delve into evolving Western efforts for supplying arms to Ukraine. Their conversation also tackles the implications of President Trump’s growing frustration with Putin and provides a clear-eyed assessment of Senator Graham’s proposed Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, and what it might mean (or, not mean) for the future of the conflict. Kofman goes into many of these issues further in his show, “The Russia Contingency,” so don’t miss out on becoming a member. Join at warontherocks.com/membership

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Strategy in Contention: Debating America’s Global Priorities

Does the United States need a new playbook — or just fewer plays? In this charged episode, big ideas collide over how to sequence American power across the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific. Ryan is joined by A. Wess Mitchell (Marathon Initiative), Stacie Pettyjohn (Center for a New American Security), and Justin Logan (Cato Institute) for a scintillating debate over the future of U.S. strategy.

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How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back

Mike Kofman and Ryan brought out the mics to discuss the pressing issues in the war between Ukraine and Russia. They focused on drones, the state of the front, manpower, Putin’s approach to Washington, and the contested policies around continued aid from the United States to Ukraine.  This episode features meaty excerpts from an episode of The Insider, featuring an interview with Jakub Jajcay talking about his article, “I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck” as well as an episode of The Russia Contingency featuring a two part conversation with Stephen Kotkin, the leading historian of Russia and authoritarianism. If these excerpts leave you wanting more, you can listen to them by becoming a member: https://warontherocks.com/membership. Our prices are going up soon so today is the perfect day to join. 

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Gen. Donahue on Deterring Russia in Europe

Gen. Christopher Todd Donahue, who leads U.S. Army Europe and Africa as well as Allied Land Command, joined Ryan for a discussion at WOTR HQ. For the first five minutes, they chat about his Army story, his time in the Ranger Regiment, before discussing how the Army Transformation Initiative is unfolding in Europe, from maneuver brigades, new technologies, command-and-control, drone and counter-drone operations, and more. Donahue previews how the U.S. Army has deliberately identified lessons from the war in Ukraine and how the Army fits into the joint fight. 

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Introducing “The Iran Reckoning with Afshon Ostovar”

War on the Rocks is launching a new show called “The Iran Reckoning with Afshon Ostovar.” It’s a members-only show but this first episode is free for all. Join us as renowned Iran scholar Afshon Ostovar takes you inside one of America’s most complex and consequential adversaries. In this episode, Ryan introduces you to Afshon and his background (about the first 20 minutes) before discussing the ongoing war between Iran on one side and Israel and the United States on the other, and the unstable ceasefire that we currently find ourselves in. Much like the “The Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman,” this show will feature Afshon’s discussions with fellow experts and analysts. Become a member today to listen to them all: https://warontherocks.com/membership

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Making Professional Military Education More Agile in the Air Force

Lt. Gen. Andrea Tullos joined Ryan at WOTR HQ to talk about her experience and insights into professional military education, both for the joint force and especially the Air Force. She shares what Air University, which she commands, has been doing to optimize its mission for competition with China, the pacing threat, and a high

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